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13 November 2021, Saturday I NIAS Europe Daily Brief #42
IN FOCUS
By Joeana Cera Matthews
Portugal: Looming Political Crisis
On 04 November, Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced the decision to conduct snap elections on 30 January 2022. Over a televised broadcast, de Sousa said: "In moments like this, we need a solution without fear and without making a drama... This is the only way for the Portuguese people to choose what they want in the coming years."
What is the background?
First, the budget refusal. The call for snap elections followed the failure of the 2022 budget proposal put forth by Prime Minister Antonio Costa's government. Since Portugal transitioned to democracy in 1974, such an event has not occurred. The budget, crucial in Portugal's pandemic recovery efforts, was rejected on 27 October by a rare coming together of the Communist Party (PCP) and the larger Left Bloc (BE). According to analysts, the 2022 draft budget was termed the 'most left-wing in years' as it involved free creches, fiscal progress, and stronger public services. However, the PCP and BE were unsatisfied with Costa ignoring their demands to protect workers, improve social security, and increase investment in health services.
Second, the looming political instability. Since 2015, Costa's Socialist Party (PS) has been in power despite lacking a majority in the parliament. Nonetheless, Portugal has witnessed a relatively stable political scenario under Costa and his left-wing coalition. The snap elections are set to impact this sensitive equilibrium. The country is still recovering from the pandemic – both economically and in terms of its health system. As Costa stated: "the last thing Portugal needs, and the Portuguese deserve, is a political crisis at this moment." The first country to get the EU's Resilience and Recovery fund, Portugal expects to inject EUR 45 billion into its economy. However, the potential political instability is set to be a hindrance to its recovery.
Third, the fragmented internal politics. Since 2005, Portugal has not seen a single party win with an absolute majority. The ability to attain an obvious victory seems unrealistic given the increasing number of parties that point to more chaos. De Sousa had attempted to aid the parties in reaching a quicker consensus on the budget by warning them of dissolving the government if the draft failed. Despite this, the PCP joined hands with the larger BE to reject the proposal in a rare coming together. Prior to this, the former partners held days of negotiations wherein they accused each other of blackmail and dishonesty while pointing out how the Portuguese poor had been left to fend for themselves.
Fourth, the timing of elections. The elections have been announced two years ahead of schedule and will see 230 lawmakers being elected to parliament. President de Sousa appears to have considered the rifts within political parties while deciding on a date for the elections. Scheduled for the end of January, sufficient time is provided for parties to change leadership via elections.
What does this mean?
First, the ignorance to alternatives. Although de Sousa consulted with the parties and his Council of State before making the announcement, he seems to have overlooked the alternatives. According to Lisbon University's Prof. Francisco Pereira Coutinho, the President could have suggested forming a new government or even opted for a technocrat-led government, as in Italy, instead of the parliament dissolution and snap elections. The present decision will hamper the economic recovery since a new state budget proposal is not expected until April 2022.
Second, the expected outcome. PS is predicted to gain in the elections, although it would not receive a parliamentary majority. The hard-right Chega party is considered to be the only beneficiary of the elections, given its clear chances of a victory. However, the party is considered too dangerous a coalition partner. As Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva said: "This election … will be a choice between the progressive and pro-European center and the center left on the one hand and, on the other, an unstable, divided and fragmented right which does not exclude reaching out to the far right."
References
"Snap elections are called after Portugal's government collapses," The Economist, 06 November 2021.
Paul Ames, "Portugal heads for snap election in January," POLITICO, 04 November 2021.
Alison Roberts, "Portugal's president calls snap election," BBC, 04 November 2021.
Barry Hatton, "Portugal's president calls a snap election on 30 January," The Washington Post, 04 November 2021.
Catarina Demony and Sergio Goncalves, "Portugal heads to polls on 30 January, political stability fades," Reuters, 04 November 2021.
"Portugal's president to address nation this week as snap election looms," Reuters, 31 October 2021.
Paul Ames, "End of the affair: Portugal's far left dumps António Costa," POLITICO, 27 October 2021.
"Portugal: Elections likely as lawmakers reject 2022 budget," Deutsche Welle, 27 October 2021.
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan
REGIONAL
The European Commission to sue Portugal for not controlling nitrogen emissions
For high emitting levels of nitrogen dioxide, the European Commission will be suing Portugal for not taking control measures. The commission has said in a statement that "Portugal has continually and persistently exceeded the annual nitrogen dioxide limit value in three air quality zones." The commission from May 2019 has continuously warned Portugal, and as it failed to address the issue, it will face legal suit. An earlier report by the European Environment Agency revealed that every European city had exposure to nitrogen oxide, out of which Lisbon and Porto were the highest. ("EU sues Portugal for poor air quality caused by nitrogen dioxide," Reuters, 12 November 2021
FRANCE
International Conference held to push forward the Libyan elections
French President Emmanuel Macron arranged an international conference to bring back the international commitment to conduct fair presidential and parliamentary elections in Libya. The top officials attended the conference from Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Önal. The Libyan authorities have promised to conduct the elections. However, challenges in electoral law, security, and the rule of law in the country might slow down the process of the elections. On a humanitarian note, the Human Rights Watch report stated that elections must be kept in Libya sooner to get through the violent transition. Apart from the above issues that are interrupting the elections in Libya, it is also the external parties Turkey and Russia which have stationed their military in the region. Unfortunately the EU, due to its limited ability, convincing the removal of the troops is a larger challenge. The final declaration at the end of the conference was "We reiterate our commitment to the success of the Libyan political process … and to the holding of presidential and parliamentary elections on 24 December 2021" (Rym Momtaz "Europeans make final push for Libyan elections," Politico, 12 November 2021)
UKRAINE
Ukraine sends guards to border to gather intelligence
On 12 November, Ukraine announced it was sending its guards and National officers to the border area which it shares with Poland. The task was to share intelligence and operation know-how to deal with the Belarusian migrant crisis. Belarus which has been under constant criticism from the EU and its neighbouring member states for causing the migrant crisis. Ukraine, which shares the southern border with Belarus, is very well prepared and has been helping Poland to resolve the crisis situation. According to a statement released by the Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyskiy "We are ready to promptly consider any request from the Polish side to provide assistance in resolving the current situation." ("Ukraine says it sends officers to Polish border to share intel on migrant crisis," Reuters, 12 November 2021)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Big social media companies retract their controversial tech applications
The Lawmakers of the European Parliament are concerned as big social media companies like Google, Facebook, and Online ad lobby are found guilty. It has decided to regulate targeted online advertising. Upon the decision, Facebook has said it shall remove its critiqued ad targeting service, which uses an indication of religion and sexual orientation to show ads. Google has also stepped to remove its third-party cookies, which track the user's online activity, and Apple has also begun to block such similar tracker technology. According to IAB it claims that a ban on advertising would widen the gap between those who benefit from technological developments and those who don't. A question to analyse is whether the EU will through the technological threat and safeguard its data. (Clothilde Goujard And Vincent Manancourt, "Big Tech scrambles as Europe ramps up crusade against online advertising," Politico, 12 November 2021)
CLIMATE CHANGE
COP26 summit extends by one more night
On 12 November, the COP26 climate conference was decided to be extended 13 November to allow more negotiations. The key topics of discussion revolved around coal, cash and timing. Many climate leaders of countries made statements on the same. The President of the COP26, Alok Sharma stated that "he was taking part in "intensive consultations" with Groups and Parties". From the Climate Action Network International, Mohamed Adow argued that the UK's proposal to fund the developing nations in fighting climate change is more disappointing as it would become a rich world negotiation and poorer nations cannot accept that. The US climate envoy John Kerry made a statement on fossil fuels. He said "it was a definition of insanity that trillions were being spent to subsidise fossil fuels worldwide. We're allowing to feed the very problem we're here to try to cure. It doesn't make sense." ("COP26, scheduled to end Friday, will now continue on Saturday as key issue remain unresolved," euronews, 12 November 2021)